Despite how mild winter 2016/17 and production growing fastest in Ohio, Pennsylvania; the spot price of Marcellus natural gas much higher than the prior two years is also indicating gas supply has fallen behind gas demand and depletion growth.
While U.S. gasoline inventory encouraged those bearish, rising distillate and jet kerosene demand confirms those Participating here Doing/Being/Having more. . . . 5.955 mmbd the last four weeks (bold line) is a new record high, 0.500 (+9.2%) more than last year (line).
76.548 in August of 2015 is the initial-estimate-peak for dry-marketed production. 75.018 in April 2015 is now this peak, 1.530 Bcf/d lower. 70.732 in January is down 4.286 from the April 2015 peak and down 2.664 YOY.
U.S. inventory of all the oil except crude oil down nicely YOY is most impressive because U.S. natural gas liquids and lower-48-state crude-oil production last week set a new weekly record high for the week.
Winter 2016/17 not Changing as much to winter cold has natural gas demand in January down 7.189 Bcf/d YOY. Temporarily mild is hiding infrastructure trends: natural gas demand down 2.664 Bcf/d YOY and exports up 3.259 Bcf/d YOY.
3,010 Bcf needed from inventory three winters ago highlights all the infrastructure in place then that will need natural gas during a cold winter and the need to work harder to be prepared for winter 2017/18 than was needed last year.